Monday, 17 October 2011

Gold Signals The End…

By Hubert Moolman
Gold remains our best means of economic measurement. It is not a perfect or 100% consistent measure of wealth, but it is our best. Due to its monetary properties, gold can be used to measure wealth across generations. 
Just like we have the sun and moon to discern the times and seasons, I believe, we have gold to discern changes in wealth. It is interesting that the sun is often compared to gold, and the moon to silver. Just like a day in the Middle Ages is comparable to a day in this century, an ounce of gold in the Middle Ages is comparable to one today.
Currently we use fiat currency, like the dollar, for economic measurement. However, this creates a huge distortion due to the fiat currency being highly unstable. Can you imagine what would be the effect on our planet if we did not use the normal cycles that the sun and moon provides us with? Our ability to produce food for example, could be severely disrupted, leading to famine or possible extinction of mankind.
By using a highly unreliable measure like the US dollar, our ability to make proper economic decisions is severely impaired, since we (the common man) are not easily able to distinguish between a real increase or decrease in wealth , for example. This causes a great misallocation of wealth and will lead to a severe economic depression.
When you look at a chart of the average day’s wages in dollars compared to the average day’s wages in gold ounces, with some analysis, you will understand why the dollar cannot be used as an economic measure. These charts show that the average daily wage for Americans, have gone from about $20 in 1964 to about $152 in 2010, whereas in gold it has fallen from just short of 60% of an ounce  of gold in 1964 to just 12,67% of an ounce of gold in 2010.
Gold is telling us that people are now earning less money than they did in 1964, whereas the dollar is telling us the opposite. Which measure is telling the truth?  This bizarre situation is evident in our “economic” and “accounting” language, when we talk about a real and nominal increase in prices. An example would be when an economist tells you that house prices have increased in nominal terms, but decreased in real terms. What? How can something go up and down at the very same time? Using a proper measure, there would be no need to have a “nominal” as well as a “real” analysis.
These bizarre and illogical concepts in our economic language are as a result of the bizarre measure of value called fiat money. We have to look at the right signs to discern the times. I prefer to look at the “behaviour” of gold to discern the economic times.
What is gold’s “behaviour” telling me?
Gold Rallies and Debt
Since 1900, we have had three major rallies in the gold price. The first started during the Great Depression, the second since about 1968, and the current since about 2001. Note, the gold price went up during the Great Depression, since most things as measured in currency (gold) depreciated. Further to that, in 1933, due to increased demand, the gold price was increased from $20.67 to $35. During the first two rallies, there were major economic declines. 
The economic decline during the Great Depression was much worse than that of the 70s. This is mostly due to the difference in debt levels during the two periods. The debt level during the Great Depression was far greater than that of the 70s. The greater number of defaults, due to the bigger debt, took a bigger chunk of value out of the economy.
The current gold rally is still in progress. Debt levels now are greater than during both the previous major gold rallies. It is believed that in 2008, total debt as a percentage of GDP in the US stood at more than 340% compared to 265% during the Great Depression. At some point during the Great Depression, debt levels collapsed, causing a major economic decline. The rally in gold is a way reflection of how debt levels collapse. The current major rally in gold is thus telling me that we are likely to have an economic decline far greater than that of the Great Depression, in the US and most parts of the world. This economic decline has already started, and is about to intensify.
New Monetary Order
In 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt changed the monetary order in the US, with Executive Order 6102. Fundamentally the dollar changed its nature due to this order, and was therefore no longer backed by gold – for US citizens.  As mentioned earlier, this and the revaluation of gold was done, due to the increased demand for gold. 
The principle is: people became aware that there were far more claims on gold (read dollars) issued than the gold available, and therefore demanded their gold. This was mainly the result of the increase in credit during the 20s. As explained above, this run to real money (gold) is basically the flip side of the contraction of credit or debt.
So, the revaluation of gold was done to halt or slow the debt contraction, with those who handed their gold to the government, paying the bill for this decrease in debt contraction. Also, it prevented the banking system from leaking more gold, due this increased demand for gold. The system was recharged, and ready to go, as we know, for another 38 years.
The late 60s to early 70’s (start of the second gold rally) brought the same problem, however, this time it was sovereign nations that became aware that there were far more claims on gold (or dollars) circulating than the gold that the US had available. Some nations requested their gold because of this fact, and the US banking system was once again leaking gold like it did during the Great Depression.
Like in the 30s, the US knew that it would not be able to deliver the demand for gold, due to this “gold run”, and it therefore decided to close the “gold window”. Just like the US citizens, nations could no longer exchange their dollars for gold. 
This stopped more gold from leaking out of the US reserves, and the system was yet again recharged. The bankruptcy of the US was now well hidden, and it seemed like the perfect con. No more demand for gold from neither citizens nor sovereign nations that might expose the bankruptcy (too many dollars), too few ounces of gold.
Dollar could now be printed without any accountability to those users of dollars (basically the whole world). They have done it: the perfect con.  Or have they?
No, there might be no one that will be able to bring the bankruptcy to light, due to the seemingly faultless plan; however, it is the natural laws that will bring this con to an end.
How? Debt levels are once again at historically high levels. The level of debt that this system can carry is limited. The level that it is limited to might not be known, however, one can look at natural laws in order to estimate a possible limit. It is my believe that the natural cycle (limits) for these type of systems (man-made systems) are linked to the human cycles of 40 years , 70 years and 80 years, as per the Holy Scripture.
The period of 40 years is associated with middle age, judgment, as well as a generation. The period of 70 years is associated with a life-time and judgment. The period of 80 years is associated with an extended life-time, two 40 year periods and also judgment.
The history of this dollar monetary system appears to follow these natural cycles with an almost scary accuracy. From the period of the Great Depression (gold revaluation) to Nixon closing the gold window is more or less 40 years. That is the period of 1929 to 1933 to 1971.
The period from 1929 peak in the Dow – when the stock market crashed, as well as the peak in the Dow/Gold ratio – to 1999 when the stock market made a peak (1st of 2 peaks), and the Dow/Gold ratio peaked, is 70 years. Remember, the Dow/Gold ratio is a significant indicator of the extent to which claims on real assets exceed the actual real assets; therefore, it is an extremely important signal when determining turning points in the current fiat money system.
The year 2014 will be 70 years since the Bretton Woods agreement that brought about the current monetary system, with the dollar as reserve currency. This is how the relationship with the US and the gold of other nation states in the US came about.
We are already in the period that marks 80 years since the Great Depression. The year 2013 will mark 80 years since the 1933 gold revaluation. It is currently 40 years since the closing of the gold window.
The point here is that the natural cycles appears to be very relevant to this man-made monetary system, and that it is very likely that we are extremely close to the end.
The end of the monetary system is likely to come before a peak in gold, if by decree (creation of a new monetary system), but still forced by natural law. If the system is ended by natural law, then it is likely to come at the peak in gold or after. The peak in gold I refer to is gold as measured against other real assets (not paper money).
Another possibility to keep in mind is the fact that gold could also be outlawed by most governments. I am not saying that this will happen, however it is a possibility, and should be watched for. If this comes to being, I believe we have entered the period when this might happen.
Again, the nature of gold allows us to keep track of the times and seasons of this corrupt system, by studying the behaviour of gold.
Gold Fractal Analysis
Based on the above analysis and long-term fractal analysis, it appears that we are close to a top in gold (in terms of fiat currency and real assets). However, let this not confuse you to think that we are close to a top in the price of gold in terms of the dollar or other currency amount.
We are close in terms of time (as early as the end of 2012 to the beginning of 2013), but $ 1920 is not close to $10 000, should $10 000 be the peak in the gold price, for example. It is also likely that gold will not have a peak in fiat currency as such, but instead, just discontinue trading in fiat currency. That means we might come to a point where gold will only be exchanged for real assets.
Below is a 38yr gold chart (thanks to goldprice.org):
I have done some fractal analysis on this chart. I published this analysis the first time when gold was well under $ 1200 dollars. The fractals indicated have astonishingly continued to keep its similarity as we have progressed during this gold bull market.
On the chart I have indicated two patterns marked by the numbers 1 to 3. The first pattern (fractal) forms a small cup between 1974 and 1978, compared to the second pattern which forms a big cup between 1980 and 2008. If the bigger pattern continues it similarity to the smaller pattern, then the parabolic (based on a long-term scale) move in gold should continue, taking gold to multiples of the current price. I have indicated the point in the 70s that is similar to point where we are at now.
What I wanted to highlight here is the fact that according to my fractal analysis, it appears that gold has reached a critical point where it is expected to rise really fast. Also, this analysis suggests that we could peak as early as the end of 2012 to 2013, and we should as a minimum reach $ 4000 by then. This is consistent with the above analysis regarding gold and the monetary system.
Please note, the above fractal analysis is just a very big picture analysis, as well as a simplistic analysis prepared for this article. One has to also look at the context in which both patterns exist as well as look at confirmation standards.
My premium subscription service and long-term fractal analysis report provides more usable information regarding the price of gold and silver. Please contact me for details as well as a free current edition of my premium service.
Other Important Points
I believe there are enough signs that indicate that we have entered a period where we should expect the worst. We should thus prepare for the worst, with the hope that we would be able to cope with whatever comes our way.
Due to the great probability that the fiat money system might come to an end soon, it is not desirable to exchange physical gold and silver for fiat money. Where possible it is better to exchange them for real goods and services and productive assets.
An economic depression is virtually assured due to the bankrupt monetary system as well as the extreme debt levels.
For more analysis, subscribe to my blog or premium service.
Warm regards
Hubert
“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

CIA drone shot down U.S. Special Forces Chinook helicopter in Afghanistan



According to a White House insider a CIA drone downed the Special Forces Chinook helicopter in Afghanistan on August 6, 2011, not a rocket propelled grenade (RPG).  Former CIA director and current Secretary of Defense LeonPanetta was authorized to send a CIA drone to SEAL the fate of the eye witnesses to Barack Obama’s killing of bin Laden on Pakistani soil.
Military officials in Afghanistan have claimed that the U.S. military helicopter carrying special operations forces to a night-raid in the Tangi Valley of Wardak Province, was brought down by a rocket-propelled grenade.  
According to military officials the Taliban fired a ‘lucky shot’ in the downing of the Chinook helicopter that killed 25 American special operations personnel, five Army National Guard crewmen, seven Afghan commandos, one Afghan interpreter and a U.S. military dogOf the 25 American Special Forces, 15 Navy SEALs from the elite ‘Team Six’ unit that killed Osama bin Laden were killed.
Unbeknown to the American people is that the entire Navy SEAL team that was sent to kill bin Laden was wiped out. What a lucky shot in deed for Barack Hussein Obama if a Taliban was truly responsible for the Chinook downing. 
 Because of that “lucky shot” there are no “boots on the ground” eye witnesses to the unlawful killing of bin Laden on Pakistani soil. No one is left who can be called before a tribunal, Congressional hearing or International Criminal Court to give testimony.
  I for one don’t believe a RPG  “lucky shot” downed the Chinook.  I can, however, believe that the United States government would order the CIA to down the Chinook helicopter and murder their own people just to permanently silence all witnesses to the unlawful killing of bin Laden on Pakistani soil.  U.S. military officials have gone to great lengths to cover up the fact that the team that Obama ordered to unlawfully  infiltrate Pakistan and murder bin Laden was also murdered.  Plausible?  Yes.  Beyond reasonable doubt?  You decide.
The U.S. military is now controlled by the CIA – it is headed by former CIA directorLeon Panetta.   Immediately after it became known that bin Laden’s killers (SEAL Team Six) were among the dead the CIA controlled Pentagon was quick to issue a contradicting statement that “none of those killed had participated in the bin Laden operation”.   
They claimed the team that killed bin Laden was conducted by members of DEVGRU’s Red Squadron.  The wiped out SEAL Team Six was formed from members of DEVGRU’s Red Squadron.  SEAL Team Six members and DEVGRU’s Red Squadron members are one and the same people. 
 A civilian doesn’t know this but a grunt would know.  Every special mission team is made up of members from a number of different groups.  Only those with a specific mission critical skill are temporarily taken from their regular group to form a “special mission team”.  Team members rarely go on more than one mission together. 
 As soon as the mission is completed the Team ceases to exist – for security reasons.  That is until August 6, 2011.   On August 6, 2011 the Pentagon (CIA) broke protocol and ordered everyone who took part in the killing of bin Laden to board the same aircraft.   They put all their eggs in one basket and downed it – intentionally.  Why?   To protect Obama and the White House.
Immediately after Barack Obama arrogantly boasted that he had killed bin Laden and dumped his body in the sea the International community started to question the legality of the killing.  
 The killing raised concerns Internationally that the United States may have gone too far in acting as policeman, judge and executioner of the world’s most wanted man. International Law experts are calling the killing unlawful.  Why?  The first legality red flag was raised when the World heard that bin Laden was killed in Pakistan.  The United States is at war with Afghanistan and Iraq, not Pakistan.  
The Pakistani government and military forces are not at war with the United States.  Pakistan’s sovereignty was violated by the United States.  The United States government usurped the Pakistan political and legal authority when they sent armed U.S. Special Forces inside Pakistan to murder bin Laden.
International law experts were then alarmed when the White House stated that bin Laden was not armed when he was killed, contradicting an earlier U.S. account that he had taken part in a firefight. If bin Laden was unarmed he didn’t pose a threat to the heavily armed and highly trained (elite) SEAL team.  
The statement by the White House reveals that bin Laden was murdered which according to International Law is a very serious crime – even during war.  Murder is not lawful in peace time, nor war time. The Geneva Conventions which govern armed conflict explicitly notes that international humanitarian law applies to such conflicts. This means countries can’t go around killing people simply because they think they are a terrorist. Due process has to be applied to such people.
The Geneva Conventions apply in wars between two or more sovereign states. Article 5 of the Third Geneva Convention states that the status of a detainee may be determined by a “competent tribunal.” Until such time, he is to be treated as a prisoner of war. After a “competent tribunal” has determined that an individual detainee is an unlawful combatant, the “detaining power” may choose to accord the detained unlawful combatant the rights and privileges of a prisoner of war as described in the Third Geneva Convention, but is not required to do so.
 An unlawful combatant who is not a national of a neutral State, and who is not a national of a co-belligerent State, retains rights and privileges under the Fourth Geneva Convention so that he must be “treated with humanity and, in case of trial, shall not be deprived of the rights of fair and regular trial.
The killing of bin Laden was not done by the Americans in the heat of battle, or as an act of self defense. Instead he was killed in a well executed raid by the United States military and security personnel.  As bin Laden was unarmed there was a clear alternative to killing Bin Laden available to the U.S.  Special Forces and that would have been to capture him, interrogate him and then, if there were sufficient evidence charge him with any number of serious offenses.
The Geneva Convention forbids treachery, which it defines as “killing a leader outside of the battle space.” Attacks on leaders are prohibited by Article 23b of the Hague Convention of 1899, which outlaws “treacherous attacks on adversaries,” and by the Protocol Addition to the Geneva Convention of 1949.
In addition to international law, U.S. policy has prohibited the use of assassination since 1976 when President Gerald Ford signed Executive Order 11905, which states, “No employee of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, political assassination.
In Obama’s defense Greg Kehoe, a U.S. lawyer who advised the Iraqi Special Tribunal formed to prosecute Saddam Hussein, has stated that this was a war action and not a police action. And, in a war situation, any commander in chief is a “fair-game target,” and bin Laden was the commander in chief of an organization at war with the U.S. In that sense, the international war laws side with the U.S..
Do you believe International Law and Executive Order 11905 applies to Barack Hussein Obama or do you agree with Greg Kehoe?  If you agree with Kehoe you would also have to agree that Barack Hussein Obama is a also a “fair-game target”.  
Obama is the current commander in chief of the United States military and seeing as it was the United States commander in chiefs who decided to unlawfully go to war with Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and order military strikes and assassinations inside Pakistan then Barack Hussein Obama can be lawfully killed by any Afghani, Iraqi, Libyan or Pakistani civilian, military personnel or political leader.  I wonder if a sniper from either Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Pakistan would get a “luck shot” at their “fair-game target”.
-Press Core-

Will Occupy Wall Street be a global catalyst?


The youth and middle class are paying a huge price for mismanagement and greed by the financial and political elite.
 Last Modified: 15 Oct 2011 18:17
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Protesters around the country are following the actions of anti-corporate demonstrations on Wall Street [EPA]

Though Wall Street itself was largely empty on Wednesday night, the Broadway entrance to the iconic thoroughfare was packed with thousands of frustrated citizens attempting to march through the very heart of global financial power. Standing in their way were scores of New York City police officers willing to stop their advance with force if necessary.

When elements within the crowd made the decision to press into the police line, that force was executed in the form of indiscriminate blasts of pepper-spray and clubbings. Senior officers swung their batons wildly on a crowded public sidewalk, making no visible attempt to distinguish between those who initiated the surge and those who were exercising their legal right to assemble peacefully.

 Protesters who sat down in order to underscore their nonviolent intentions were manhandled by the authorities. Lower-ranking officers in blue uniforms joined in the melee by directing sweeping clouds of pepper-spray at the demonstrators. Journalists attempting to document the violence became victims of it.

It was an admittedly chaotic scene and members of the sizable crowd did consciously push into a police line; still, witnesses to the incident claim the NYPD failed disastrously in living up to its credo of "courtesy, professionalism and respect".
A justifiable use of force?


It was the latest in a growing list of dramatic confrontations between supporters of the Occupy Wall Street movement and the NYPD. Less than one week earlier, the department made a historic mass arrest of at least 730 demonstrators who attempted to march across the Brooklyn Bridge.

A week before, internet videos depicting the violent tactics employed by NYPD officers in arresting over 80 demonstrators went viral - including two showing Deputy Inspector Anthony Bologna pepper-spraying corralled citizens on a public sidewalk without provocation.
"The idea of Wall Street has become as important as the physical area itself"
The idea of Wall Street has become as important as the physical area itself, and Wednesday night was a perfect example of the symbolic showdowns that police officers, and by extension the city of New York, have been instigating with their continued attempts to assert control over the demonstration.

Every time an officer is caught on camera hurting or arresting citizens who are peacefully expressing their frustration with elite control of this struggling country, the movement wins a symbolic and even strategic victory.

In the case of Occupy Wall Street's original New York presence, many of these dramatic encounters between demonstrators and police have resulted in a loss of innocence among people who have otherwise never been exposed firsthand to police brutality. The protesters have been given a taste of what low income communities and communities of colour deal with everyday. A sense of mutual acknowledgement by people who have faced different manifestations of police misconduct - whether on Wall Street or in Brownsville -  fosters a sense of unity.

Many of those who continue to return to Liberty Plaza believe they are part of something unique, and that what they are doing is justified.

They are correct on both accounts.
In depth coverage of US financial crisis protests

Growing concern


You don't have to be an expert economist, an activist or an academic to understand the movement. The number of Americans living in poverty has climbed to a historic 46.2 million, including one out of six of the nation's children, while the top one percent is holding onto more than a fifth of the nation's income. Banks have received massive bailouts, but the 'hood is still poor. Rural communities are still struggling. Tuition rates continue to rise while students suffocate under the burden of onerous debt. Meanwhile, billions in taxpayer dollars are being funnelled into unconscionable wars on terror and drugs, while profiteers in the defence and criminal punishment industries rake in billions.

These are the kinds of inconsistencies the Occupy Wall Street movement purports to oppose. They are grievances reasonable people would agree are profound.
"What we are witnessing ... looks less like a protest and more like the birth of a new movement for economic justice."
When it comes down to it, Occupy Wall Street is much bigger than the police versus protester narrative. Significant as those encounters have been and will continue to be, confrontations with the police are only one piece of the puzzle. What we are witnessing in New York City, and across the country, looks less like a protest and more like the birth of a new movement for economic justice. It appears to be a genuine attempt by a justifiably frustrated public to establish a new democratic framework and replace the existing one.

If that is the case, then confrontations with the Praetorian Guard of the status quo and its elite benefactors is hardly a surprise. The police exist in large measure to maintain the existing order. In the eyes of Occupy Wall Street's supporters, that order has failed too many for too long and must be replaced. Some amount of friction between the two groups in this relationship is all but inevitable.

Luke Richardson quit his job serving steaks across from the New York Stock Exchange to join the movement full-time. The next day the 25-year-old was forcefully arrested and charged with disorderly conduct for standing in the streets with thousands of others. He claims one officer threw punches at him before at least four others pinned him to the ground. They knelt on his head and left him in flex cuffs for four hours. He is now seeing a specialist for nerve damage in his hand.
Strengthening resolve

Upon being released he made his way back to the encampment at Liberty Park and has been involved there since. His commitment bolstered not by the rough police treatment he received, but the connections he made with NYPD officers.

"What strengthened my resolve was actually talking to police officers in the precinct and genuinely feeling that they supported what were doing," Richardson said. "I think there are large institutional issues with the police - however, I do think there are good people. In general, the police are good people, and they don't like to see people getting hurt, and they also don't like to see injustice in general."

He added: "The police right now stand as a barrier between us and the wealthiest members of society. They are the protectors. As soon as that barrier breaks down, I think true economic justice can be achieved."

Thus far, the occupiers have handled police encounters with intelligence and poise. Not only have the crackdowns further emboldened and politicised many within Occupy Wall Street's ranks - voices of the movement have used the attention to spread their message to the world, garnering a growing stream of supporters. The demonstrators have remained peaceful in the face of violence, and have continually reached out to the police, reminding them that the status quo they defend has its eyes on their pensions too, and that their job is to protect people and justice. These conscious efforts have earned the movement credible moral high ground in the minds of many.

But the ongoing occupation in Lower Manhattan is facing real hurdles. The limited space at Liberty Plaza, which is now filled with people - more and more each day - creates serious challenges. Many demonstrators are agitating for expansion. "It's not about being in Liberty Plaza," Richardson quipped. "It's about taking Liberty Plaza out into the world."

Occupiers who have been there from the beginning are dealing with an influx of new supporters seeking to get involved. While increasing attendance has led to impressive professionalisation in dealing with a number of logistical needs, there are increasing concerns about security issues, organisational efficacy, the decision-making process, and burn-out among veteran participants.

If Occupy Wall Street's deft handling of the NYPD in recent weeks is any indication of the movement's capacity to learn, adapt and react, however, there is reason to believe that this demonstration of mass political engagement can overcome its challenges, present and future.
Ryan Devereaux is a freelance journalist who has contributed to The Nation, Salon, Democracy Now and others.