Sunday, 23 October 2011

Gempa Bumi Besar Landa Turki Pada 7.3 Skala Richter

7.2 quake in Turkey kills 138, collapses buildings

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Cries of panic and horror filled the air as a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Turkey, killing at least 138 people as buildings pancaked and crumpled into rubble. The death toll was expected to rise as rescuers sifted through the rubble and reached outlying villages.
Tens of thousands fled into the streets running, screaming or trying to reach relatives on cell phones as apartment and office buildings cracked or collapsed. As the full extent of the damage became clear, survivors dug in with shovels or even their bare hands, desperately trying to rescue the trapped and the injured.
"There are many people under the rubble," Veysel Keser, the mayor of the district of Celebibag, told NTV. "People are in agony. We can hear their screams for help."
Celebibag is near the hardest-hit area: Ercis, an eastern city of 75,000 close to the Iranian border and on one of Turkey's most earthquake-prone zones. The bustling city of Van, about 55 miles (90 kilometers) south of Ecris, also sustained substantial damage. Highways in the area caved in. The temblor struck at 1:41 p.m. (1041 GMT; 6:41 a.m. EDT), the U.S. Geological Survey said.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at least 93 people were killed in Van, 45 others died in Ercis, and about 350 were injured. Several people were still trapped under rubble, he said, without citing any estimates.
Erdogan said rescue work would continue through the night.
Up to 80 buildings collapsed in Ercis, including a dormitory, and 10 buildings collapsed in Van, the Turkish Red Crescent said. The sheer number of collapsed buildings gave rise to fears that the death toll could rise substantially.
U.S. scientists recorded over 100 aftershocks in eastern Turkey within 10 hours of the quake, including one with a magnitude of 6.0. Authorities advised people to stay away from damaged homes, warning they could collapse in the aftershocks.
Residents in Van and Ercis lit campfires, preparing to spend the night outdoors while the Red Crescent began setting up tents in a stadium. Others sought shelter with relatives in nearby villages.
Rescue efforts went deep into the night under generator-powered floodlights. Workers tied steel rods around large concrete slabs in Van, then lifted them with heavy machinery.
Residents sobbed outside the ruins of one flattened eight-story building, hoping that missing relatives would be found. Witnesses said eight people were pulled from the rubble, but frequent aftershocks hampered search efforts. By late evening, some joy emerged as a ninth, a teenage girl, was pulled out alive.
Erdogan urged residents to stay away from damaged buildings and promised assistance to all survivors.
"We won't leave anyone to fend for themselves in the cold of winter," he said.
Around 1,275 rescue teams from 38 provinces were being sent to the region, officials said, and troops were also assisting search-and-rescue efforts.
In Ercis, heavy machinery halted and people were ordered to keep silent as rescuers tried to listen for possible survivors inside a seven-story building housing 28 families, NTV reported.
Some inmates escaped a prison in Van after one of its walls collapsed. TRT television said around 150 inmates had fled, but a prison official said the number was much smaller and many later returned.
Nazmi Gur, a legislator from Van, said his nephew's funeral ceremony was cut short due to the quake and he rushed back to help.
"We managed to rescue a few people but I saw at least five bodies," Gur told The Associated Press. "It was such a powerful temblor. It lasted for such a long time,"
"But now we have no electricity, there is no heating, everyone is outside in the cold," he added.
Authorities had no information yet on remote villages but the provincial governor was touring the region by helicopter and the government sent in tents, field kitchens and blankets.
The earthquake also shook buildings in neighboring Armenia and Iran.
In the Armenian capital of Yerevan, 100 miles (160 kilometers) from Ercis, people rushed into the streets in fear but no damage or injuries were reported. Armenia was the site of a devastating earthquake in 1988 that killed 25,000 people.
Sunday's quake caused panic in several Iranian towns close to the Turkish border and caused cracks in buildings in the city of Chaldoran, Iranian state TV reported.
Leaders around the world conveyed their condolences and offered assistance.
"We stand shoulder to shoulder with our Turkish ally in this difficult time, and are ready to assist," U.S. President Barack Obama said.
Israeli President Shimon Peres telephoned Turkish President Abdullah Gul to offer assistance.
"Israel shares in your sorrow," Peres said in a statement. "Israel is ready to render any assistance that may be required anywhere in Turkey, at any time."
The offer came despite a rift in relations following an 2010 Israeli navy raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla that left nine Turks dead. Greece, which has a deep dispute with Turkey over the divided island of Cyprus, also offered to send in a special earthquake rescue team.
Turkey lies in one of the world's most active seismic zones and is crossed by numerous fault lines. In 1999, two earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7 struck northwestern Turkey, killing about 18,000 people.
More recently, a 6.0-magnitude quake in March 2010 killed 51 people in eastern Turkey, while in 2003, a 6.4-magnitude earthquake killed 177 people in the southeastern city of Bingol.
Istanbul, the country's largest city with more than 12 million people, lies in northwestern Turkey near a major fault line. Experts have warned that overcrowding and shoddy construction in Istanbul could kill tens of thousands if a major earthquake struck.

CEDIM Forensic Earthquake Analysis Group
(Status: October 24, 2011 05:00 Central European Time)
Eastern Turkey Earthquake 23 October 2011

An earthquake of magnitude 7.1 to 7.2  (source: GFZ, EMSC and USGS) struck
Eastern Turkey on Sunday October 23, 2011 with epicentre 17 km NNE of Van City at
Van Lake at local time 13:41. Initial seismological information suggests an almost EW
oriented thrust earthquake. An M=7.2 event has typically fault extension of 100 km,
so that Van City has been affected seriously. Aftershock activity continues with largest
shocks of magnitudes 5.6 and 6.0 on Sunday; magnitudes around M5 remain likely
for the coming days, may bring instable structures to collapse and pose some threat
to Search and Rescue operations.

Van is located at 1.700 m elevation, with officially (2010) 370,000 inhabitants; this
number is possibly underrated (see,_Turkey).
Ercis is another city north of Van which has around 140,000 inhabitants as of 2010. It
is suggested that the epicentre was closer to Ercis and was exposed to EMS intensity
VIII or above.

Affected population that was exposed to very strong shaking (EMS intensity VII-VIII)
is the population of Van City estimated as 370,000. The city is built along the shores
of Lake Van, which suggests soft soil  conditions for the entire city, possibly
liquefaction along the shore of the lake. The level of earthquake  building code
compliancy is only medium on the CATDAT scale (Daniell et al., 2011), which will
aggravate building damage and collapse. Initial photo and video information support
this suspicion. The time of the event – Sunday early afternoon – may be a loss
reducing factor, as no workday influx from surrounding population is to be expected
and a number of people may not have been in their homes.

Current loss estimates (ELER method, Prof. Mustafa Erdik, Kandilli Observatory,
Istanbul) indicate  500 to 1,000 persons being killed, so that the number of
homeless may be in the range of 5,000 to 10,000. The casualty rate is calculated
using different methods however, using their Coburn and Spence method data,
masonry buildings exposed to intensity VIII which completely collapse generally have
a 36% fatality rate, and RC buildings  that collapse have between 44% and 62%
fatality rates.

The official current death toll is at 217 (Ercis = 117,  Van = 100), and 1090 people
injured (Ercis = 740, Van = 350); both numbers will certainly grow over the coming

Telecommunications broke down and the  airport of Van City is located at the lake
shore, and has been damaged to some extent. This can jeopardize rescue and relief
operations as all other airports are more than 150 km away from the affected area.
The Van airport is back in operation at this point despite damage.

Cold weather will cause additional stress to homeless persons, and those who                                                                                      
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology

are afraid to return to their homes. Around this time of the year night time
temperatures reach 0° Celsius. The current forecasts indicate low temperatures at
night of 0° Celsius for the next 2 to 3 day followed by temperatures of -3° Celsius.
Historic Earthquakes:  There have been over 30  major damaging earthquakes
through history in the CATDAT (Daniell et  al., 2011) data base within 100km of this

• In 1111 a Van earthquake caused major damage, with a magnitude of around
M6.5 to M7. Between 1646-1648 Van was struck by a M6.7 quake, killing around
2000 people.
• 30th May 1881 M6.3 – near Van – killed 95 people.
• In 1941, a M5.9 earthquake affected Ericis and Van, killing between 190 and 430
• A swarm of smaller earthquakes from 1945-1946 killed many people in Van.
• In 1976, 66km away from this one, a  M7 quake on the border killed 3840 and
caused 51000 homeless.

CEDIM Initial Forensic Analysis
Turkey has experienced several large earthquakes in its recent history with the 1999
Kocaeli event as worst one in the past  15 years. This Sunday October 23, 2011
Eastern Turkey earthquake occurred in a high seismicity zone where building codes
should provide adequate protection for collapse for modern buildings up to 0.5 g
acceleration. The CATDAT (Daniell et al., 2011), analytic data base ranks Turkish
code compliancy only at medium level, with a potential of an even lower level in the
very Eastern part of the country. The reported collapse of a 7-story modern building
may be an indicator for a low code compliancy level. Further analysis will shed more
light on this issue.

Currently no clear situation has evolved  with regard to losses: The 500 to 1,000
fatalities (associated with possibly 10,000  homeless persons) will  be validated or
modified with information of the forthcoming days.

The aftershock activity contains still magnitudes around M5 posing some threat to
Search and Rescue (SAR) operations.

Damage to infrastructure (telecommunication, airport) has occurred, but apparently
air traffic in Van has resumed.

Cold weather will cause additional stress to injured, not yet hospitalized persons, to
homeless persons, and those who are afraid  to return to their homes. Around this
time of the year night time temperatures reach 0° Celsius. The current forecasts
indicate low temperatures at night of 0° Celsius for the next 2 to 3 day followed by
temperatures of -3° Celsius.

Continuous real-time information is provided by:                                                                                      
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology
Further Sources:
Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., and Vervaeck, A.: The CATDAT  damaging
earthquakes database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11,  2235-2251,
doi:10.5194/nhess-11-2235-2011, 2011.
Friedemann Wenzel
Mob: +49-15201601069

Powerful earthquake hits eastern Turkey
Hundreds feared dead and dozens of people injured as quake strikes northeast of the city of Van.
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2011 15:22

At least 45 people have been killed after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey, state-run TRT television reports.

But Turkey's Kandilli Observatory estimated that 500 to 1,000 people could have perished in Van province on Sunday.
The seismology institute's estimate was based on the strength of the quake and the structure of the housing in the area.

The worst damage was caused to the town of Ercis, close to the Iranian border. The city of Van also suffered substantial damage.

"Around 10 buildings have collapsed in the city of Van and around 25 or 30 have collapsed in Ercis, including a dormitory,'' Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said.

Atalay said authorities had no information yet on remote villages, but a local governor was touring the region by helicopter to assess damage.

The quake's epicentre was in the village of Tabanli.

Al Jazeera’s Murat Utku, reporting from Van, said rescue workers were are scrambling to rescue those trapped before nightfall.

"The heat difference between day and night is very big here", he said. "Some are trying to dig their family members out by hand, but some machines are being taken here now to join the rescue workers."

'Too much destruction'

At least 50 people were taken to hospital in Van, Anatolia news agency said.

"There are so many dead. Several buildings have collapsed. There is too much destruction," Zulfikar Arapoglu, the mayor of Ercis, told NTV television. "We need urgent aid. We need medics."

The Turkish Red Crescent said its rescuers pulled several injured people out of the collapsed dormitory in Ercis, which sits on a geological fault line.

"People are in agony, we can hear their screams for help. We need urgent help. "
- Veysel Keser, mayor of Celebibag
Serious damage and casualties were also reported in the district of Celebibag, near Ercis.

"There are many people under the rubble," Veysel Keser, mayor of Celebibag, told NTV. "People are in agony, we can hear their screams for help. We need urgent help."

"It's a great disaster," he said. "Many buildings have collapsed, student dormitories, hotels and gas stations have collapsed."

Officials warned that they were struggling to assess the full extent of the damage.

"People are panicked. The telecommunication services have collapsed. We cannot reach anybody,"  Van Mayor Bekir Kaya told NTV.

The army was to send search and rescue teams to the area and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was travelling to Van.

Aftershocks continued after the initial quake.

The quake was also felt over the border in northwest Iran, causing some panic in major cities, Iranian media reported.
Major geological faultlines cross Turkey and small earthquakes are a near daily occurrence. Two large quakes in 1999 killed more than 20,000 people in northwest Turkey.

Two people were killed and 79 injured in May when an earthquake shook Simav in northwest Turkey.
Al Jazeera and agencies


23 OKTOBER : Turki digegarkan dengan gempa bumi kuat pada bacaan antara 7.3 Skala Richer sehingga 7.3 berlaku sebentar tadi.

Pada 20 Mei lepas, Turki digegarkan dengan gempa bumi pada skala 5.8 magnitud dan menyebabkan dua orang terkorban.

World Location

Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia melaporkan satu gempa bumi kuat bermagnitud 6.9 pada skala Richter telah berlaku di Kawasan Sempadan Turkey-Iran pada 6.42 petang, 23 Oktober, 2011. Pusat gempa bumi terletak di 38.4º Utara dan 44.3º Timur, 6611 km dari barat-laut Pulau Langkawi, Kedah.

Jika diambil data kekuatan pada lebih 7 skala richter kesannya dijangka adalah besar.

Perkembangan lanjut bakal menyusul dari masa ke semasa.

Very strong devastating earthquake in eastern Turkey – We expect a lot of fatalities

Last update: October 23, 2011 at 11:52 am by By 

Earthquake overview : A very strong  earthquake just occurred in eastern Turkey – Van area
“I have Felt it” Reports –> see below + Let us know “how you have felt this earthquake”
To read the full story as it happened, we advise our readers to start at the lower part of the page (earthquake data).

We are currently collecting data from this earthquake – we will be back asap

Keep this page open or return regularly as we will be back with more details when they become available

UpdateWAPMERR theoretical damage / human impact engine :
ESTIMATE OF HUMAN LOSSES: Injured Exp. min/max: 20000/60000
Fatalities Exp. min/max: 8000/20000
Update7-storey building collapsed as a result of the earthquake with some citizens trapped in the rubble. Firefighters are trying to save the citizens of the wreckage at the bottom. Information about the place, and consequently the loss of life due to the earthquake happening is not yet known.
Essentially the percentage of people killed in such collapses of major buildings ranges between 20%-50% of the occupants.
This should be a further wake-up call after 1999 for Istanbul.
Update: Based on James Daniell CATDAT data it appears to be the 400-500 year return period earthquake.
Historic CATDAT data for the Van area:
There have been over 100 damaging earthquakes through history in CATDAT with 100km of this epicenter. Here are some of the most damaging ones that have affected Van.
1111- Van earthquake caused major damage, with a magnitude of around 6.5-7.
1646-1648 – Van was again struck by a M6.7 quake, killing around 2000 people.
30th May 1881 – M6.3 – near Van – killed 95 people.
In 1941, a M5.9 earthquake affected Ericis and Van, killing between 190 and 430 people.
A swarm of smaller earthquakes from 1945-1946 killed many people in Van.
The North Anatolian Fault caused additional damage in Van from a 4.9 quake in 1972 with 10 injured.
In 1976, 66km away from this one, a M7 quake on the border killed 3840. 51000 homeless.
Update:  We are trying to get as much as possible news from the direct epicenter area, but as most of the communication means are down at the moment, the I have Felt it reports are coming from the alerted neighboring countries.
Update:  The epicenter area is currently getting many +5 aftershocks, already dangerous  on their own
Update:  Data of the different seismological agencies:
Kandilli Turkey : 6.6 @ 5 km
GFZ: 7.3 @ 10 km
EMSC: 7.3 @ 10 km
Update:  As could be expected, strong aftershocks will be making the damage even bigger
Update : Some houses in the city have been destroyedmany houses were damaged. Phones fell silent and power has been cut. Kandilli Observatory described the M6.6, 5km depth earthquake as devastating.
Update:  Houses have been destroyed, 5km from Van.
Important Historical CATDAT updateThe 1976 earthquake on the Iranian-Turkish border was a M7 and killed around 5000 people. If we are looking at a direct hit on Van, the highest death percentage likely is around 6-10%, which could mean values of dead around the Izmit earthquake – between 19000-38000 dead.
Update: Turkish parameters are a little less devastating, but still devastating : 6.6 @ 5 km depth (all data is preliminary)
Update: The intensity numbers   as reported theoretically by USGS are DEVASTATING
49,000 people are expected to experience a X shaking (extreme shaking)
381,000 people are expected to experience a IX shaking (violent shaking)
131,000 people are expected to experience a VIII shaking (severe shaking)
264,000 people are expected to experience a VII shaking (very strong shaking)
487,000 people are expected to experience a VI shaking (strong shaking)
12,596,000 people are expected to experience a V shaking (moderate shaking)
Update: This earthquake has been felt in all neighboring countries and beyond. This is a really bad sign. The red colored area on the map below is at very high risk for casualties.
USGS numbers are even more alarming. They are reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.3 at a depth of 7.2 km.THESE ARE DEVASTATING VALUE

Turkey, Van October 23 2011 earthquake shaking map - courtesy USGS

We have a lot of I Have Felt reports coming in at the moment.
The data we are showing at the moment are preliminary and only based on EMSC
The depth should weaken the impact a lot.

“I Have Felt It” reports as received by
- No Felt reports as yet, be the first to send us what you experienced.

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.4
UTC Time :  Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 10:41:21 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 01:41:21 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 47 km
Geo-location(s) :
19 km N Van (pop 371,713)
26 km SE Ercis (pop 91,915)
Links to important maps
USGS Did You Feel It Map
Google satellite map showing the epicenter and the surrounding area.
Historic earthquakes map
Seismic hazard map
Shaking map
Focal mechanism report
Human impact map
GDACS earthquake report
GDACS tsunami report
NOAA tsunami report

7.2 magnitude quake jolts eastern Turkey, causes casualties

23 October 2011, Sunday / TODAYSZAMAN.COM,
Write Comment0Add to Google
A 7.2 magnitude earthquake rattled the eastern Turkish province of Van on Sunday and there were reports that some buildings had collapsed and that about 50 people had been injured.
The İstanbul-based Kandilli seismology center originally reported that the magnitude was 6.6 but later corrected it as 7.2. The quake occurred at 1:41 p.m. Its epicenter was in the village of Tabanli in the eastern province of Van, bordering Iran, but the quake was also felt in the province's city center as well as the neighboring provinces of Bitlis, Muş, Batman, Diyarbakır and Hakkari. The quake struck at a depth of 5 kilometers.

The Prime Ministry's Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate said in a statement released after the quake that the tremor was strong and caused material damage and some fatalities.  It gave no numbers for the death toll.  The earthquake also toppled some buildings in downtown Van but the most serious damage was in the neighboring town of Erciş. Several strong aftershocks were also reported.
“There are so many dead. Several buildings have collapsed, there is so much destruction,” Zülfikar Arapoğlu, mayor of Erciş, told NTV television. “We need urgent aid, we need medics.”
Residents spilled out into the streets in panic as rescue workers struggled to rescue people believed to be trapped under collapsed buildings, television footage showed. In Van, at least two buildings collapsed, Bekir Kaya, the mayor of Van, told NTV. One of the collapsed structures was a seven-story building, according to the state-run Anatolia news agency. “The telephone system is jammed due to panic and we can't immediately assess the full extent of the damage,” Kaya said.

The Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay) announced that some 25 buildings including hotels and a student dormitory collapsed in Erciş.   Kızılay immediately began to send aid supplies to the earthquake zone.  A crisis desk was established to oversee the developments in the region.
 Kızılay started to send tents, blankets and the other aid supplies to Van from their logistics depots from various neighboring provinces in the region especially from Erzurum.
In Hakkari, a town around 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of the city of Van in southeastern Turkey, buildings could be felt swaying for around 10 seconds during the quake. There was no immediate sign of any casualties or damage in Hakkari, about two-and-half-hours drive through the mountains from Van, around 20 kilometers from the epicenter.

The true extent of the damage caused by the quake is not yet known. The US Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the magnitude as 7.2. The USGS originally reported the magnitude as 7.3, but later corrected the figure. It added that the quake had a depth of 20 kilometers (12.4 miles), which is relatively shallow and could potentially cause more damage.

Television coverage showed damaged buildings and vehicles, crushed under fallen masonry and panicked residents wandering in the streets. Turkish media said phone lines and electricity had been cut off. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will head to Van to see the damage, the media reported.

Earthquakes are frequent in Turkey, which is crossed by several fault lines, and small earthquakes are a near daily occurrence. Two large quakes in 1999 killed more than 20,000 people in northwest Turkey. Two people were killed and 79 injured in May when an earthquake shook Simav, also in northwest Turkey.